EU corn ethanol crush margins fell to the lowest level since records began in 2013, turning negative as corn prices rallied. Drought and frost in Brazil cut the crop outlook, and US crop ratings also declined, lifting Euronext corn futures more than 30% since July 1.
Weather-driven cuts to Brazilian and US corn supply are tightening the global corn balance and raising feed costs, while ethanol margins collapse, which can reduce DDGS output.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.