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A CBH Group trading manager says Australia has a large oversupply of malting barley, with 2020/21 supply of 3.1 million tonnes against domestic demand of about 1.1 million. He expects limited premiums for the foreseeable future, as barley hectares fall and China's tariffs have pushed growers away from the crop.
Surplus malting barley keeps export premiums capped, which weighs on Australian barley values. Lower planted area partly offsets the pressure over time.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.