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Kalshi odds of a December Fed rate hike fell from 83% to 70% in three days as the Nasdaq lost 4.2%. Spot gold closed below $4,000, its lowest close since October 2025, and silver fell to $49.
Two Fed presidents called for more hikes on the same day.
Falling tech stocks rather than a dovish Fed drove the drop in hike odds, and metals sold off with broader risk assets. Continued rate-hike expectations keep the dollar supported and commodity prices under pressure.
basecamp.marketsSatoshi FlipperOct 31, 2026After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
