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DTN analyst Todd Hultman says December Chicago (SRW) wheat dipped below its 100-day average several times in 2021, but end-user buying showed up each time to support prices. He notes SRW supplies tightened in 2019-20 and that end users pay up for SRW because it is hard to replace in consumer goods.
Persistent commercial buying on dips suggests firm underlying demand for SRW wheat, which supports Chicago futures despite weak trader interest.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.