
An Environmental Working Group analysis of USDA records finds farm subsidy payments rose from about $4 billion in 2017 to over $20 billion in 2020. Most of the increase came from ad hoc programs tied to the trade war, and the largest farms captured a growing share.
The analysis is a policy critique that may shape future farm bill debate, but it does not change near-term supply or demand for feed commodities.
After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.