IFFO's January-August 2021 report found July raw material tonnage about 35% lower than July 2020 and cumulative first-seven-months output higher, with fishmeal up 8% and fish oil up 17%. Peru, Chile and India were the only countries with higher fishmeal output, and China's domestic output stayed low during its fishing ban.
Reduced China domestic output keeps reliance on imported fishmeal high, supporting prices, while higher cumulative production limits upside.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.