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Argentine investors are increasingly pessimistic on the peso and expect the government to speed up devaluation after November elections. Dollars cost 196 pesos on the parallel market, almost double the official rate, the widest gap in 12 months.
Futures price the peso at 152.5 per dollar in September 2022.
Expected devaluation would make Argentine soymeal and soybean exports more competitive, which could weigh on world oilseed meal prices. The wide parallel-rate gap also signals capital flight and unstable export incentives.
bloomberg.comScott Squires, Ignacio Olivera DollNov 1, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 117 past bearish macro events, SBM moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
