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The Canadian dollar fell 0.5% to 1.2375 per U.S. dollar on Thursday as oil prices dropped about 1% after a forecast for a warm U.S. winter. Canada's annual inflation rate reached an 18-year high in September, and Ottawa said it would end broad COVID-19 support programs.
Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to hike rates by 100 basis points in the second half of 2022.
The loonie's close link to crude means a weaker oil price pushes USD/CAD higher. A warmer U.S. winter outlook reduces natural gas and energy demand expectations, which can ease energy-driven inflation pressure.
financialpost.comReutersOct 21, 2021Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
