
ING's FX commentary of October 25, 2021 says the Federal Reserve has entered its pre-meeting blackout ahead of the November 3 FOMC meeting. It expects U.S. third-quarter GDP and September core PCE data later that week to drive the dollar, and it flags a possible short-term correction in the dollar.
The note also reports a hawkish rate hike by Russia's central bank to 7.50%.
Dollar direction affects dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices and the cost of imports for emerging markets. The note describes market positioning rather than a new supply or demand shock.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.