
China's 80 per cent tariff on Australian barley, imposed last year, effectively ended the trade worth about $1.2 billion annually. Analysts at AgFlow and Thomas Elder Markets say Australian barley is priced $30-40 per tonne below where it should be despite alternative buyers in Saudi Arabia and Mexico.
Australian barley production is forecast down 10 per cent this season.
Losing China as a volume buyer leaves Australian feed barley at a discount to competitors, pressuring farm-gate values and export margins. Tighter Australian supply offers only partial support against the discount.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.