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ANZ's Agri Commodity Report says Australia is heading for its second-largest grain crop on record, with a record canola crop and large wheat and barley crops. Harvest logistics, including cross-border movement of contractors and trucks, may be strained.
A large harvest raises the risk of freight and storage bottlenecks, and heavy export volumes could weigh on Australian grain basis and freight rates.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.