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California Japonica rice prices for US #1 4% broken white rice are at their highest in ten years. Freight out of California is hard to secure at affordable rates, while Australia and China are gaining share with their stockpiles.
High benchmark prices combined with freight constraints tighten Japonica supply to buyers, while competing origins' stock sales cap upside.
After 21 past bullish logistics events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.8%), and +3.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.