
Mexico, Chile and Peru have increased imports of Canadian oats as their oat processing sectors expand. USDA forecasts Canadian 2021/22 oat exports at 1.1 million tonnes, the lowest since 2003/04.
Canadian production is forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, down 50% after hot, dry weather, and export prices hit a record $565 per tonne in October.
Sharply reduced Canadian exports and record export prices tighten global oat supply, and USDA expects other exporters such as Australia and the EU to gain share.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Oats moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.7%), and -3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.