U.S. rice exports to Colombia have fallen to just $5 million through September 2021, and the tariff-rate quota under the US-Colombia trade agreement went unfilled for the first time. The decline reflects a larger Colombian crop, lower domestic prices and stronger competition from South American exporters.
An unfilled quota signals weaker US rough and milled rice export demand to Colombia, a modest bearish factor for US rice prices.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.