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Trase analysis of the leaked draft EU due-diligence regulation found that it covers soybeans, soy flour and soy oil but excludes soy cake used for animal feed. Trase estimates this leaves more than half of the bloc's soy-linked deforestation risk outside the rules.
Excluding soy cake from the regulation means soybean meal imports for animal feed would avoid the new due-diligence costs, which supports EU meal demand from current origins. This makes soybean meal relatively more competitive than whole soybeans or soy oil under the proposed rules.
trase.earthHelen Bellfield, Osvaldo PereiraNov 9, 2021After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 554 past neutral policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
