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Analyst Dan Basse projects 2022 US all-milk prices above $20/cwt, the first such USDA-level projection since 2016. He cites a shrinking US dairy herd, down 81,000 cows since May, lower global milk output and rising dairy demand.
A contracting herd and rising global demand for butter and cheese support higher milk prices, which strengthens dairy producers' feed purchasing power.
After 20 past bullish macro events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.1% to +2.4%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.