Economist Steve Meyer of Partners for Production Agriculture reviewed the USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which showed inventory of 74.2 million head, down 4% from last year. He expects hog supplies to rebound next year and prices to remain good.
He also expects exports to grow modestly in 2022, led by Mexico, Canada and Asian markets rather than China.
A supply rebound in 2022 could cap hog price gains, but solid export demand from non-China markets supports the outlook. Meyer's view that futures are too high suggests the market may be vulnerable if demand weakens.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.