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Urea prices continue to fall on weak demand in Europe, the US and Brazil, with net-back prices below USD 300 FOB Arabian Gulf for most markets. Processed phosphate prices are also falling as China increases export volumes, with expectations of up to 7 million MT of DAP and MAP exports.
An India urea tender is anticipated but has been delayed.
Lower fertilizer input costs improve feed-grain producers' margins over the medium term, while Chinese phosphate export volumes add supply pressure on phosphate prices.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganMay 28, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Weak demand in Europe, the US and Brazil pushed Middle East netbacks below $300 FOB, directly driving the urea price decline, while a delayed India tender removed support.
Reports processed phosphate prices falling as China raises DAP/MAP exports (up to 7 million MT expected) amid weak demand, a direct supply-driven bearish driver.
Urea prices kept falling on weak demand in Europe, the US and Brazil, with netbacks below $300 FOB Arabian Gulf and the India tender delayed, which explains the sharp 5-day decline.
Weak demand in Europe, the US and Brazil, plus a delayed India tender, kept urea prices falling, though this was published after the move and mostly confirms the trend.
