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Oat and coffee futures have been the fastest-growing commodities of 2021, up about 87% and 81% year to date as of Dec. 22.
Severe weather including drought and frost in Brazil cut arabica output sharply, while Canadian oat crops also suffered.
Tight supply of oats raises feed costs for buyers using oats in rations, and the rally signals that weather-driven shortfalls are lifting prices across food and feed grains.
After 68 past bullish weather events, Oats moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.