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Successful Farming reports that ethanol plant profits are near the 2014 record, with a representative Iowa plant earning $1.34/gal in mid-November 2021 against a 2014 record of $1.53. Margins were roughly break-even on August 1 and rose steadily after that.
Scott Irwin attributes the gain to a sharp ethanol price rise.
Very high ethanol margins keep plants running at full rates, which supports corn grind demand and firm corn values. Margins that stay high sustain that pull on corn supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.