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Australian canola flat prices are strong at historically high levels, but the discount to world prices has widened. Prices in Western Australia fell about A$100 from early November as harvest pressure built.
The author notes that Australian basis is low because of overseas supply issues and a large domestic crop.
Harvest selling is pressuring Australian canola prices, while the widening discount limits export margins. These are routine price dynamics with limited broader impact.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.