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European ICE low-sulfur gasoil prompt backwardation reached a three-year high in mid-January, with the February/March spread at $13/mt. Front-month prices hit seven-year highs as diesel supply tightened on lower imports and changing middle distillate yields.
Steep backwardation signals physically tight European diesel, raising fuel and freight costs for feed supply chains. It also points to firm energy-linked input costs into early 2022.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.