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Jan 13, 2022POLICYUS

How might the past four years of economic shocks inform the next Farm Bill agenda?

A Purdue agricultural economics essay argues that trade and pandemic shocks pushed farm support payments to nearly 30 percent of net farm income over 2018-2021, about three times the 2012-2017 rate. It links this to the expiring 2018 Farm Bill and the 2022 midterm election calendar.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected winding down of ad hoc payments could tighten farm budgets and shape the next Farm Bill, with limited near-term effect on commodity prices.

AFFECTSCorn Soybeans Wheat (SRW)

SOURCE
ag.purdue.eduSarah E Zahn, Morgan FrenchJan 13, 2022

Price reaction & history

Cornno directional readSO FAR1d -1.2%5d -1.3%20d +5.3%

After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Nov 15, 2017Economists Offer Insight for the 2018 US Farm Bill | Agricultural and Resource Economics+1.1%
Jun 17, 2022The Farm Bill – How the Past Impacts the Future | Soy Ohio-4.2%
Oct 30, 2025Q&A: What's next for the Farm Bill? | IATP+0.0%
Dec 7, 2023Congress extended Farm Bill for a year but must tackle partisan debates now - Medill on the Hill-2.3%
Jun 24, 2026A $17 Billion Economic Aid Package Likely Outside of Farm Bill-2.3%

Soybeansno directional readSO FAR1d -1.9%5d +2.5%20d +13.2%

After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

Nov 15, 2017Economists Offer Insight for the 2018 US Farm Bill | Agricultural and Resource Economics+3.1%
Jun 17, 2022The Farm Bill – How the Past Impacts the Future | Soy Ohio-5.8%
Oct 30, 2025Q&A: What's next for the Farm Bill? | IATP+3.7%
Dec 7, 2023Congress extended Farm Bill for a year but must tackle partisan debates now - Medill on the Hill+0.9%
Jun 24, 2026A $17 Billion Economic Aid Package Likely Outside of Farm Bill-0.0%

Wheat (SRW)no directional readSO FAR1d -0.3%5d +4.8%20d +2.4%

After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.

Nov 15, 2017Economists Offer Insight for the 2018 US Farm Bill | Agricultural and Resource Economics-2.8%
Jun 17, 2022The Farm Bill – How the Past Impacts the Future | Soy Ohio-3.4%
Oct 30, 2025Q&A: What's next for the Farm Bill? | IATP-2.8%
Dec 7, 2023Congress extended Farm Bill for a year but must tackle partisan debates now - Medill on the Hill-4.0%
Jun 24, 2026A $17 Billion Economic Aid Package Likely Outside of Farm Bill-0.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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