
Oil rose 3% to seven-year highs on February 11 as fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine added to concerns over tight global crude supplies. Washington warned that Russia had massed enough troops for a major invasion.
Rising crude lifts diesel and fertilizer costs and supports vegetable oil and biofuel-linked feedstock prices, raising feed input costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.