
A University of Illinois analysis estimates the representative US biodiesel plant lost $18.3 million in 2021, a -77.5% return to equity, and the industry lost roughly $987 million. The losses came from soybean oil costs that outpaced biodiesel prices, which were driven by a policy-fueled boom in renewable diesel.
Persistent losses at soy-based biodiesel plants reduce soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector, while growth in renewable diesel keeps competing for feedstock. Net effect is a structural tug on soyoil and vegetable oil prices.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.