China has suspended exports of phosphate-based fertilisers to overseas markets, and COVID-19 restrictions have disrupted port operations and tightened domestic supply of yellow phosphorus. Upstream raw material tightness linked to the Eastern Europe conflict has also supported producer offers across Asia Pacific.
China's export suspension removes phosphate supply from world markets at a time of seasonal demand, which supports DAP and TSP prices.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.