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Nordea's March update forecasts EUR/USD rising from about 1.10 to 1.18 and GBP/USD reaching 1.42 by the end of 2023. The bank expects the dollar to fade from mid-2022 as US growth slows, and it flags high option volatility linked to the Ukraine conflict.
Commodity currencies are seen as having scope for gains.
A weaker dollar later in 2022 would lower the cost of dollar-priced commodities for non-US buyers and could support commodity-linked currencies. These are long-range forecasts and not a near-term supply or demand shift.
exchangerates.org.ukTim ClaytonMar 24, 2022After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
