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MacroBusiness argues that the Australian dollar has been boosted by the Ukraine war because it behaves as a coal currency rather than an oil currency. Credit Suisse noted that Asian currencies such as the Korean won and rupee were the weakest, while the Aussie was resilient.
The writer attributes these moves to commodity shortages from Western sanctions on Russia rather than a US dollar liquidity squeeze.
Sanction-driven shortages of energy and other commodities lift export prices for commodity exporters such as Australia. The currency signal reflects expected firmness in coal and iron ore, not a direct change in feed supply.
macrobusiness.com.auHouses, HolesMar 10, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
