
The Canadian dollar has lagged the oil rally, trading around 78.7 US cents despite crude's surge, and is down 1% year to date while the Australian dollar is up. WTI dropped below $100 for the first time since March 1, with the loonie slightly lower at 77.86 cents.
The weak loonie link to oil means Canadian buyers gain less currency relief from high crude, leaving import feed costs elevated.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.