
Thailand's retail inflation, already at its highest since 2008, is set to accelerate as the government lifts a freeze on some retail diesel prices from May 1. The baht's slump to a five-year low is making fuel imports more expensive for the net oil importer.
Higher inflation and a weaker baht raise the likelihood of earlier Bank of Thailand rate hikes, tightening financing costs for feed and livestock operations while raising fuel and transport costs.
After 105 past bullish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.8%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.