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Brent's front-month futures closed at $98 a barrel on April 11, roughly the level before Russia's February 24 invasion of Ukraine. Calendar spreads have softened significantly and are trading lower.
Narrowing spreads and a return to pre-invasion prices signal a less tight crude market, reducing pressure on diesel and freight costs. This points to easing energy-driven input costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.