
OPEC told the IMF's steering committee that the surge in oil prices was largely due to the Ukraine crisis. Brent averaged near $98 in Q1, up about $18 from late 2021, and OPEC+ plans a 432,000 bpd output increase for May.
OPEC's refusal to add extra supply beyond its gradual plan signals continued tightness in crude. This keeps energy and input costs elevated for feed buyers.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.