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Rabobank says the war disrupts barley supply because Russia and Ukraine are major barley exporters, mostly to feed markets. Global feed barley prices have risen more sharply than malting barley prices.
Loss of Black Sea feed barley exports lifts feed barley prices, while malting barley rises less, widening the feed-malt spread.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.