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The Oklahoma State University extension column notes the 2022 Oklahoma and Texas wheat harvest forward contract is $11.10 per bushel, which would be a record harvest price. Analysts estimate the Ukraine war adds $2.50 to $3.00 to prices.
Poor crop conditions add risk to the outlook.
Record harvest-period prices and poor HRW crop conditions raise the cost of wheat for feed formulators and keep HRW values firm through the harvest.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.