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Australian oat prices have lagged wheat and barley despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict, falling from the mid-to-low $300s per tonne in 2021 to under $300 this year. ABARES puts Australia's 2021-22 oat crop at 1.62Mt, and Canada's 2021-22 exports fell to 1.3Mt due to drought.
Weak Australian oat demand and a large local crop keep oat prices subdued, so the price impact of Canada's smaller crop remains limited outside North America.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.