February Nymex natural gas closed up 7% after rallying for six straight sessions to a two-month high. Forecasts showed an arctic air mass advancing across the northern US and the South, including Texas, while a strong El Niño was expected to keep temperatures above average.
Expected heating demand from the arctic air supports gas prices, while the warm El Niño outlook limits the upside over the longer period.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Published on 2024-01-09, it reports a roughly 7% surge in February Nymex gas on arctic-air forecasts, which directly explains the day's large move through a spike in expected heating demand.