USDA's Economic Research Service reports that U.S. wheat export prices rose sharply after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022. HRW export prices were up 78% and SRW up 64% in March versus a year earlier, while HRS is priced lower than HRW.
Tight supplies across major exporters have lifted global prices.
With Russia and Ukraine supplying about 28% of world wheat exports and major exporters' stocks at multi-year lows, U.S. wheat prices stay elevated, raising feed-wheat costs and supporting corn and barley as substitutes.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.