The International Chamber of Shipping says roughly 80 to 100 ships, mostly bulk carriers, have been stuck in Ukrainian waters for almost two months due to mines and blockades. Bulk freight rates are rising as owners and charterers price in longer tie-ups, and grain trade flows are shifting to longer routes from the Americas.
Higher ocean freight raises landed grain costs for importers in Africa and Asia and widens the spread between origins, supporting demand for US, Brazilian and Argentine corn and wheat while adding cost pressure to feed prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.