Belarus is negotiating to resume potash deliveries to Brazil, according to its ambassador to Brazil, and says its product is priced about 60% below Russian and Canadian potash in 2022. Belarusian shipments through Lithuania's Klaipeda port were halted on 1 February 2022, and Brazilian trade data shows Belarus supplied about 612,000 tonnes in January-March 2022 versus 659,000 from Russia and 719,000 from Canada.
Belarus supplies roughly a fifth of Brazil's potash, so a resumption of its exports would ease supply and push potash prices lower for Brazilian buyers. The sanctions-driven transit halt has kept that supply out of the market.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.