
The Fed raised rates by 50 basis points at its May 3-4 meeting, the largest single increase since 2000, and signalled further hikes to contain inflation. Markets expect a policy rate of 2.5-3.0% by end-2022.
The Fed also began shrinking its balance sheet in June, starting at $47.5 billion per month.
Tighter US financial conditions strengthen the dollar and raise borrowing costs, which can weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices and slow global demand for animal protein and feed. The balance-sheet runoff is small relative to the Fed's holdings, so its direct liquidity effect is limited.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.