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US diesel averaged $6.22 a gallon in October 2026, up 69% from $3.68 a year earlier, according to EIA data. Spot freight rates rose more than 44% year over year in September, but fuel costs are absorbing much of the gain for truckers.
Higher diesel costs squeeze trucking margins and push up delivered costs for feed ingredients, while firmer freight rates signal tighter truck capacity.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.