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May corn futures have held near $8 per bushel, a level not seen since 2013. Dan Basse of AgResource cites three bullish factors, including a Brazilian safrinha crop cut by drought, with Brazilian colleagues forecasting about 104 million tonnes against USDA's 116 million.
A smaller Brazilian crop would force importers to source more corn elsewhere, supporting US and global corn prices and raising feed costs.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.