
The EIA kept its 2022 US fuel ethanol production forecast unchanged but lowered its 2023 outlook. Brazilian UNICA data showed cane processing and ethanol output fell in the first two weeks of the 2022-23 season, while sales rose.
The STB also required railroads to meet new reporting rules to address rail delays affecting ethanol producers.
A lower 2023 ethanol forecast points to slower future corn grind and DDGS supply. Brazil's weaker early output and the rail reporting rules both affect how fuel and feed co-product supply moves.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.