Crude Tensions: OPEC+ To Keep Oil Targets Unchanged As Iran War Curbs Gulf Supply

After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2022OPEC keeps oil supply cuts amid uncertainty of Russian sanctions - Los Angeles Times-11.1%
• Dec 4, 2022Algeria says OPEC+ decision to keep output unchanged appropriate-11.1%
• Oct 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady-2.3%
• Oct 4, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady+0.8%
• Aug 3, 2017OPEC supply-cut compliance runs up against ire over country targets-0.0%

After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Dec 4, 2022OPEC keeps oil supply cuts amid uncertainty of Russian sanctions - Los Angeles Times-11.4%
• Dec 4, 2022Algeria says OPEC+ decision to keep output unchanged appropriate-11.4%
• Oct 4, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady-0.9%
• Oct 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady+2.6%
• Aug 3, 2017OPEC supply-cut compliance runs up against ire over country targets+0.4%