
Speculative net long positions in the US dollar rose by about US$1.52 billion in the week to June 21, according to CFTC data. Consumer confidence fell to 98.7 in June, and recession risks were cited as drivers of safe-haven demand.
Heavier speculative dollar buying and recession fears strengthen the dollar, which weighs on dollar-denominated commodity prices while raising import costs for Indonesian feed buyers.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.