PwC published an economic outlook for South Africa with three scenarios for the rand through the rest of 2022. The article cites the rand's weakness above R16.00 per dollar in May and June, driven by Ukraine-related risk-off sentiment, a strong dollar and domestic load-shedding and flooding.
It also notes that Russia and Ukraine supply large shares of global sunflower, wheat and potash exports.
The scenarios frame the currency outlook for South African feed importers, and the Russia-Ukraine supply shares highlight possible upside risk for oilseed and grain prices. The forecasts are conditional and do not themselves move prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.