
U.S. cheese output is softening, with Cheddar volume down 2.9% and all American-style cheese down 0.6% through April 2022. Cheddar blocks have held in the $2.20-$2.39 range at CME for two months, while new Cheddar, Colby and Jack capacity is expected to come online.
Reduced cheese output and high whey and butter values keep milk prices elevated, but coming cheese capacity could increase milk demand later. Cheesemakers are struggling with milk costs, which may lead to depooling and changes in milk flows.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
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