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RaboResearch's Lucas Fuess says rising milk output in the U.S. and other major exporters has pushed dairy markets into oversupply. Class IV futures are around $13, well below current cost of production and far under the $22 to $23 seen a year earlier.
Output growth near 4 percent is expected to persist into 2026.
Oversupply and futures prices below production costs signal continued pressure on milk prices, which may cut farm feed budgets and slow dairy herd expansion over time.
dairyherd.comTyne MorganDec 3, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rabobank's 'wall of milk' commentary on global oversupply and Class IV futures near $13 reflects a supply-driven bearish sentiment shift.
The 'wall of milk' oversupply narrative, with production growth near 4% and futures well below cost of production, supports bearish sentiment and selling pressure on 2025-12-03.
