
Dr Ross Ainsworth's South East Asia report says Indonesia's cattle markets are in turmoil from rapidly spreading foot-and-mouth disease, with domestic cattle prices falling sharply in infected areas. He argues Australian cattle imports to Indonesia make little sense until vaccines are widely available.
Collapsing Indonesian cattle prices and paused imports reduce demand for Australian feeders and weigh on Australian live cattle prices.
After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 46 past bearish disease events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.6%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.