
Rural Bank's mid-year outlook estimates Australian wheat production at 30.5 million tonnes, down 21% year on year but 17% above average. USDA forecasts global wheat output down 1% with world carryout falling 5% to a six-year low.
Canadian barley recovery is expected to lift USDA's barley estimate by 3%.
Global wheat carryout falling to a six-year low signals tighter supplies, supporting wheat and barley prices and feed grain costs.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.